Pre-registered predictions alongside pilot results. Hypotheses committed before outcomes were known. The predictions include the engine losing its state-recovery comparison.
Pilot data excluded from all confirmatory analyses.
Hypothesis: FVR < 5% in every cell.
Decision: Pass iff point estimate < 0.05 in all 36 cells.
Pilot signal: 1.0-2.0% across all pilot cells.
Hypothesis: Engine raw ECE < 0.20 in all medium- and rich-evidence cells.
Decision: Pass iff all 24 medium/rich cells are below 0.20. Sparse cells reported as directional boundary.
Pilot signal: ECE 0.10-0.15 in medium/rich; sparse is the stress test.
Hypothesis: Best-of-BKT >= engine AUC in a majority of cells (direction runs against the engine).
Decision: Report the paired cell-level AUC difference with 95% CI. No pass/fail gate.
Pilot signal: BKT exceeded engine by 0.01-0.03 in all 36 pilot cells.
Hypothesis: Tempered minus untempered ECE < 0 in at least 33 of 36 cells, mean delta <= -0.03.
Decision: If H5 fails, tempering does not survive to engine v2 — explicit kill criterion.
Pilot signal: Negative in all 36 pilot cells.
No deviations recorded. Any departure from this document will be logged here with date, reason, and assessed impact on each affected endpoint.