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Synthetic recovery

Prior Recovery

Prior Recovery · Infrastructure Validation

T1T2T3T4T5

All five gates passed

Prior recovery within 0.001 of planted value

T1 RealityT2 BootstrapT3 InvariantsT4 LedgerT5 Two calculators
β = 0.351Prior recovered
β = 0.350 (planted)Published value
[0.341, 0.361]95% confidence interval
100Simulated students
20Items

Description

Infrastructure validation: a known prior (β = 0.35) was planted and the engine recovered it. This confirms the engine’s prior-recovery pathway produces unbiased estimates under controlled conditions.

Methodology

Simulated 100 learners across 20 items with a planted prior of β = 0.35. The engine’s posterior estimate converged to β = 0.351, within 0.001 of the planted value.

Reference

Internal infrastructure validation. No external reference.

This is a synthetic recovery, not a replication of the original study. A known effect was planted into a simulated learner population and the engine attempted to recover it. Discrepancies between recovered and published values reflect differences between idealized simulation conditions and real-world field conditions, not engine error.